Saturday, 22 July 2017

Weekend update - US weekly indexes

It was a somewhat mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes, ranging from +1.2% (Nasdaq comp'), +0.5% (sp'500, R2K), -0.3% (Dow), to -2.8% (Transports). Near term outlook offers brief cooling of around 1.5% to the sp'2430s, before making a more serious push to the 2500s in August.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


The sp' settled net higher by 13pts (0.5%) to 2472, with a notable new historic high of 2477. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) ticked higher for a second week, remains fractionally negative, and is due a bullish cross within 1-2 weeks. The key 10MA is at 2432, and by September, will be close to 2500.

Best guess: near term cooling to the 2430s, before resuming upward into end month. August looks set for further upward melt, with the 2500s highly probable by early September. A 5% retrace seems viable within the 'delicate period' of Sept/Oct. The year end target of 2683 remains on track, but will require at least one further rate hike, to help kick the financials upward.

Equity bears have nothing to tout unless the mid term upward trend - from Feb'2016 is broken. As of early August, that will be around 2370.
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Nasdaq comp'


Tech continues to lead the way upward, with the Nasdaq settling +1.2% at 6387, with a notable new historic high of 6398. Price momentum is set to turn positive next week, as the 6500s seem viable by September. The 7000s are just about within range by year end. Does anyone seriously think we'll trade under 5k any time soon?


Dow


The mighty Dow saw a minor net weekly decline of -0.3% to 21580. Underlying MACD remains fractionally negative, but will surely turn positive within 1-2 weeks. Upper bollinger will be offering the 22000s in August. Things will only turn provisionally bearish if the Dow is trading <21k from September onward.


NYSE comp'


The master index settled +0.2% at 11924, with a notable new historic high of 11963. Broader price action remains very strong. The 12000s look a given by late summer. Things would only turn bearish if a break <11800, from Sept' onward.


R2K


The second market leader - R2K, settled higher for a fifth consecutive week, +0.5% at 1435, with a notable new historic high of 1452. Underlying MACD has turned fractionally positive for the first time since mid February. Core rising trend will be around 1410 next week. Many now seem resigned to the 1500s.. or even 1600s by spring 2018. I will continue to note that its ironic that I seem to be the only one suggesting 'R2K @ 2K'.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Transports, had the worse week since (at least) April, settling -2.8% at 9471. Its notable though that last week saw a new historic high, as the equity bulls have very little to prove. The psy' level of 10k remains probable by late September, especially if WTIC/fuel prices see another significant wave lower.
--


Summary

All US equity indexes remain within their mid term upward trends from early 2016

The US equity market is regularly breaking new historic highs in ALL six indexes

There is downside buffer of around 5-7% for most indexes, before multiple aspects of support would be challenged.
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Looking ahead

In addition to a truck load of corp' earnings...

M - Existing home sales
T - FHFA house price index, Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con', Richmond fed'
W - New home sales, EIA Pet' report

FOMC: a press release will be issued at 2pm. No policy change is expected. There will NOT be a press' conf'.

T - weekly jobs, durable goods orders, intl' trade, EIA Nat' gas
F - Employment costs, consumer sent', GDP Q2 - market is seeking growth of 2.6%, against Q1 1.4%. Arguably, any number >2.5% will put renewed pressure on the fed to raise rates in Sept', or certainly by Dec'.

*the only fed official scheduled is Kashkari (Friday), whom has notably dissented against both rate hikes this year. 
--

If you value my work, subscribe to me.


Have a good weekend
--

*the next post on this page will likely appear 6pm EST on Monday.

Friday, 21 July 2017

Opex weakness

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -0.9pts at 2472. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.1% and -0.5% respectively. VIX settled -2.3% at 9.36. Near term outlook offers further weakness to at least partly fill the gap zone of sp'2435/25. Mid term outlook remains 'scary strong', as earnings are coming in reasonable.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little weak, and saw chop across the day, but that was somewhat natural for what was option expiration. We have two entirely open gaps of 2463/60 and 2435/25. Some cooling to at least 2435 seems very probable by next Wednesday.

Market volatility remains very low, with the VIX settling lower for a third consecutive day.

Today's closing hour intra low of 9.30 is (I believe) the lowest EVER VIX.


The daily/weekly close of 9.36 is the LOWEST ever daily/weekly close. 
--

Sunshine before another storm

Goodnight from London
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The weekend post will appear Sat'12pm, and detail the US weekly indexes

Thursday, 20 July 2017

A little cooling

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -0.4pts at 2473. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.0% and u/c respectively. VIX settled -2.1% at 9.58. Near term outlook offers opex-chop into the weekend, with weakness to at least partly fill the gap of sp'2435/25 next week.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little higher, with a quartet of new index highs for the sp'500, Nasdaq comp', nyse comp' and the R2K. There was an opening reversal, but it never lasted long, with equities challenging a new high in the late afternoon.. but getting stuck.

Market volatility remains very subdued, with the VIX still unable to break and hold the 10s. If sp'2435 next week, that should equate to VIX 11/12s. The low teens look out of range for the rest of the month.
--

Just another summer's day

Extra charts in AH @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Wednesday, 19 July 2017

Scary strong

US equity indexes closed broadly mixed, sp +13pts at 2473. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.6% and +1.0%. VIX settled -1.0% at 9.79. Near term outlook still offers a retrace to sp'2435, but it should be clear, the 2500s are coming, with the 2600/700s probable by year end.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened somewhat mixed - with notable weakness in the transports (via UAL and CSX), but by late afternoon, we had a quartet of new historic highs in the sp', nasdaq comp', nyse comp', and the R2K.

Market volatility remains broadly very subdued, with the VIX still unable to escape single digits. If sp'2500s... might we see the 8s in late August/early Sept' ?
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Scary strong

I could babble on about dozens of variables, not least how other world markets are trading. I'll merely suggest anyone go stare at the following for a few minutes...

sp'monthly3


Note the upper monthly bollinger, that will be offering the 2500s in August. Further, note the key 10MA, currently at 2326.. and ticking upward by around 25pts a month. Unless we see a monthly close under that, the equity bears have nothing to tout.
--

Post storm sun

As ever, extra charts in AH @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Tuesday, 18 July 2017

Word games

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +1pt at 2460. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.7% and -0.3% respectively. VIX settled +0.7% at 9.89. Near term outlook offers weakness to the sp'2435/25 gap zone, before resuming upward into opex.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little weak, flooring at sp'2450, with a moderate latter day recovery, clawing slowly upward into the close. Short term price structure offers a baby bear flag, and the market really should cool by 25pts within the next two days.

Market volatility remains broadly subdued, with the VIX settling fractionally higher, but still stuck in the 9s. If sp'2435/25 zone... VIX 12s.. on a stretch. Even the 13s look out of reach this week.
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Word games

I was going to end the day with a mini rant about the 'biggest and brightest' - as inspired by one of my twitter followers, but Oscar Carboni's latest video has swayed me to briefly highlight the issue of word games.

Do you notice how the word 'prediction' is almost taboo these days?

Instead, people use all manner of synonyms:  outlook, forecasts, scenarios, 'best guess', or in the case of Mr Carboni... a 'projection'.

I was never one for word games, I call things as I see it, regardless of whether it might piss off some of you, not least the infamous 'gold bugs'.

Even someone like Martin Armstrong - whom I'd suggest anyone to at least periodically follow, appears too fearful to use the P word. Instead, he goes with the F word. 

Yours truly endeavours to provide the best 'predictions' out there. Some turn out real good... some not so good, but yes.. they ARE predictions. If you'd prefer I use the term 'projections' or 'forecasts'.... you're at the wrong site.

*If you are curious to see the original comments between myself and Mr C, see https://youtu.be/C9OF6RS5zP8  
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Here in the metropolis..

Pre-storm gloom

As ever, extra charts in Ah @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from a PREDICTIVE London
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Monday, 17 July 2017

Still on track

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp' u/c at 2459. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and +0.2% respectively. Near term offers a minor retrace to the sp'2435/25 gap zone. Most now recognise the 2500s will seen this summer, then its merely a case of whether the year closes in the 2600s or '700s.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was a pretty sleepy day in equity land, with the sp' seeing a trading range of just 5pts. Volatility remained subdued, but the VIX did finally manage a net daily gain, if still in the 9s. Near term, high confidence of a retrace to the 2435/25 zone - with VIX 11/12s, before renewed upside.
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At the start of the year I posted this...

sp'monthly6b



Week after week, month after month, I've touted the end year target of sp'2683. Nothing has changed, the original target remains on track. The market has teased the bears with minor retraces of a few percent, and we're typically 5% above the key 200dma.

Keep in mind, the kooks will be coming out of the woodwork in a few weeks time, as a solar eclipse will occur (Aug'21st) across North America. The dollar doomers continue to spout their nonsense on Youtube, with some of the more infamous precious metal bugs still touting $500 silver and $50k gold.

The bulls only have to trade flat across the 'delicate time' of Sept/Oct. which is always a vulnerable time for the market, as some realise a painfully long six months of chilly grey gloom is ahead.

Right now, there is still zero reason to think the mid term trends will be broken any time soon.

Goodnight from London
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Saturday, 15 July 2017

Weekend update - US weekly indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from 2.6% (Nasdaq comp'), 1.4% (sp'500), 1.0% (Dow), to 0.5% (Trans). Near term outlook offers a minor retrace, but with mid term upside into September. The year end target of sp'2683 remains on track.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


The sp'500 began the week on a bearish note, with a Tuesday 'Trump Jr' low of 2412, but then rebounding strongly upward, settling +34pts (1.4%) to 2459. There was a notable new historic high of 2463. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) remains fractionally negative, but is due a bullish cross before end month. The key 10MA offers support in the 2420s, and that looks secure into early September.

Best guess: a near term retrace to the gap zone of 2435/25, with renewed upside to the 2500s, certainly no later than early September. The elusive 5% retrace seems viable in Sept/Oct, but broadly, the US market is super strong, with the year end target of 2683 on track.

Equity bears should remain mute unless a break of mid term rising trend, which will be around 2350 next week, and is rising around 25pts a month.
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Nasdaq comp'


The Nasdaq continues to lead the way, with a net weekly gain of 2.6% to 6312, settling well above the key 10MA. The 6k threshold now looks secure until September, as the 6500s appear viable within 1-2 months. Price momentum is still moderately negative, but a bullish cross is due before end month.


Dow


The mighty Dow climbed 223pts (1.0%) to 21637, with a notable new historic high of 21683. Underlying MACD remains fractionally negative, and we're due to turn positive cycle within a week or two. Ongoing price action remains 'scary strong', as the 22000s are easily viable by September. A year end close as high as 23k is possible, and just consider that is only another 6.3% higher.


NYSE comp'


The master index gained 1.2% to 11987, with a new historic high of 11918. Price momentum has turned fractionally positive, with the NYSE comp' well above the key 10MA. Things would only turn bearish with a break of mid term trend, which at end July will be around 11600.


R2K


The second market leader - R2K, settled +0.9% at 1428, just 5pts shy of the recent historic high. Like most other indexes, price momentum remains fractionally negative, but is set for a bullish cross within 1-2 weeks. The 1500s look viable as early September. The hyper bulls should be seeking 'R2K @ 2K' in 2018.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Transports, was the laggard this week, but still managed a moderate gain of 0.5% to 9742, with a notable new historic high of 9763. The giant psy' level of 10K seems probable in August/September. A year end close around 11k is just about viable, especially if oil/fuel prices remain mid term weak.
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Summary

All US equity indexes remain holding within the mid term upward trend from early 2016.

The US market is still regularly generating new historic highs, lead by the Nasdaq.

Most indexes have 5-7% of downside buffer before key aspects of support are tested.
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Looking ahead 

In addition to a wheel barrow of Q2 earnings...

M - Empire state manu'
T - Import/export prices, housing market index
W - Housing starts, EIA Pet' report
T - Weekly jobs, phil' fed, leading indicators, EIA Nat' gas report
F - *OPEX*
--

If you value my work, subscribe to me.


Have a good weekend
--

*the next post on this page will likely appear 6pm EST on Monday.

Friday, 14 July 2017

New highs into the weekend

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +11pts at 2459. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. VIX settled -3.9% at 9.51. Near term outlook offers a retrace, but no lower than the gap zone of 2435/25. Any hopes of sp <2400 in July/August should be dropped.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened fractionally mixed, but quickly turned upward, and kept on climbing into the late afternoon. There were notable new historic highs for the Dow, NYSE comp', and the sp'500.

With equities breaking new highs, market volatility was ground lower, with the VIX settling lower for a sixth consecutive day.

To be clear, with a quartet of new index historic highs this week, any hope of sp <2400 in July (and probably Aug') can be ditched. A retrace to the gap zone of 2435/25 is still due early next week, but then a serious push to the 2500s.

The elusive 5'% minor correction now looks set to occur within the typically 'delicate' time of Sept/Oct. 
--

Here in London city...


... equities flying to the moon

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will appear Sat'12pm EST, and will detail the US weekly indexes

Thursday, 13 July 2017

The weekly close

Last week's close was sp'2425, with a notable black-fail candle. Equity bears should be somewhat desperate to see a Friday close of 2424 or lower, preferably <2420. Weekly price momentum for the sp'500 remains moderately favouring the bears.


sp'weekly1b



WTIC' weekly



Summary

sp: First, keep in mind last week's black-fail candle. Those are VERY rare on the bigger weekly cycles, and are not to be dismissed lightly. Second, note underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) which remains moderately negative, as price momentum does lean to the bears.

The key 10MA is in the low 2420s, and bears should be desperate to achieve some closes under it. Keep in mind the 50dma... currently around 2418, with the 200dma at 2305. Right now, I don't see anyone of note with a downside target <2300.

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WTIC: price structure - since the $42.05 low, is arguably just a multi-week bear flag. Mid term is unquestionably bearish, as we have a series of lower highs and lower lows since the Jan'2017 high of $55.24. Things only turn bullish if oil can break and hold above the last key high of $52.00.

Oscar Carboni's bold H/S downside target of $37.00 remains valid, and I'm personally inclined to see at least 41/40 before end month.
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Looking ahead

Friday will see a wheel barrow of key data: CPI, retail sales, industrial production, business inventories, and consumer sentiment.

Corp' earnings: financials:  C, JPM, and WFC. 

*Fed official Kaplan will be speaking in Mexico city early Friday, but I think the market will be far more focused on the econ-data, and the first big set of earnings.
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Normal service resumes...

For the non-subscribers out there, I hope today's posts were at least somewhat interesting, which isn't easy when main market price action is narrow range. Despite the name (which shall be changed sometime soon) I endeavour to provide the most balanced market appraisal/outlook out there.


If you think I'm worth around $1 per trading day... subscribe.


Or maybe pick up 2 shares of SNAP every 6 weeks.

Goodnight from London

VIX and Index update

US equity indexes closed fractionally mixed, sp +4pts at 2447. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers moderate cooling to sp'2435, but anything under 2425 looks a stretch before the weekend.


sp'daily5



Trans



Summary

sp: a daily trading range of barely 8pts (0.3%), as the market is somewhat tired, but so far, the bears can't muster anything. Cooling to at least sp'2435 is due, but anything <2425 before the weekend looks a stretch, as the US equity market is still regularly breaking new historic highs. Its notable that the sp' saw a bullish cross today.

Trans: a new historic high of 9742, just 2.6% shy of the giant psy' level of 10k, but settling fractionally lower. First soft support tomorrow will be in the low 9600s... barely 1% lower. Cyclically, a bearish cross is viable within 1-2 days. Core support - with the 50dma /lower bollinger, will be in the 9300s next week.
--


VIX'daily3



Volatility remains broadly subdued, with the VIX lower for a fifth consecutive day, settling -3.9% at 9.90. If the sp' keeps pushing upward to new historic highs (>2553), then VIX will have a high probability of breaking below the recent low of 9.37, which was the lowest VIX since 1993.
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Looking ahead by 6pm EST

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed fractionally mixed, sp +4pts at 2447. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers moderate cooling to sp'2435, but anything under 2425 looks a stretch before the weekend.


sp'60min



Summary

closing hour action: a fair amount of minor chop, but breaking a new intra high of 2449, leaning fractionally weak in the closing minutes.
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With the transports breaking a new historic high of 9742, it was a day for the bulls.

Short-term, the cyclical setup offers a bearish MACD cross early Friday morning. At minimum, that should see the sp' cool to 2435. Things only get marginally interesting with a full gap fill to 2425, even then, that would only result in a flat weekly close.

I see a fair few out there looking for the mid/low 2300s, but first things first... we need to see a weekly close back under the 10MA in the 2420s. Today's close doesn't offer any hope for that.
--

Here in London city...



Warm, but a depressing cloud bank rolled in for the evening. No sunset for yours truly. Wine and chocolates will have to suffice.

--
more later on the VIX and Indexes, and a 'looking ahead' post by 6pm EST.

3pm update - still due to swing lower

US equities remain moderately mixed. Cyclically - short term, some cooling to at least sp'2435 is due, although that looks a stretch before today's close. VIX remains reflective of a capital market that has near zero concerns. Metals remain weak, Gold -$1, with Silver -1.1%. WTIC is set to close higher by around 1% in the upper $45s.


sp'60min



VIX'60min



Summary

Well, its been a somewhat frustrating day. Cyclically, we're seeing the overbought smaller 15/60min cycles reset, yet the market has still been able to lean upward, and we even saw a new historic high for the transports.

Cooling to sp'2435 remains due, lead lower by the semi-conductors.

Many closing hours in recent weeks have seen new intra highs, but then distinct weakness in the final 30 minutes.

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notable weakness, NVDA, daily



Nvidia came real close to the key June 9th high of $168.50, but the buyers are faded, and its turned lower.. following AMD and MU. Arguably... a double top.
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notable strength, AAPL, daily



The tech behemoth of Apple is one reason why the bears are so far unable to pull the main market lower. Its actually on track for a fifth consecutive net daily gain. Things turn very bullish with a break above the 50dma, although that looks out of range before the close.. and probably until next week, as the main market needs to at least cool to sp'2435.

--
I might return for a brief intrahour update at 3.30pm...

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3.28pm

sp'60min



At the current rate, a bearish cross will be due by 10am tomorrow... and that'll result in 2435. A close under the hourly 10MA - 2446, is viable, as Cashin on CNBC talks about a sellside imbalance...
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notable weakness, MU, daily



Note yesterday's black-fail candle, confirmed with today's weakness. I really like the company for the mid term, with the PE of just 5, its insanely mis-priced. Short term though.. it looks vulnerable.

notable strength, X, daily



US Steel finally hits first soft target of the $24.00 threshold, as Trump talks about Steel tariffs. Things turn hyper bullish with the $28s... where the 200dma is lurking.
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Back at the close.. to wrap things up....