Tuesday 16 December 2014

Volatility remains volatile

With equities seeing some very significant swings across the day, the VIX managed significant gains, settling +15.4% @ 23.57. Near term outlook is for a key equity turn (most bearish case, sp'1950).. before VIX cools lower into year end.


VIX'60min


VIX'daily3


Summary

*on a technical note, it appears the CBOE have reverted to an older software model, and the VIX spikes have ceased this afternoon.
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So.. the VIX closed in the 23s. I am dismissing the earlier spike high of 25.20 as a 'rogue print'

Equities look set for a key turn around the next FOMC tomorrow, and if that is the case, then VIX should start to rapidly cool into year end. By mid/late January.. if new index highs (>sp'2079).. then VIX will be in the low teens.

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more later.. on the indexes