Wednesday 17 December 2014

Pre-Market Brief

US equities are bouncing, sp +8pts, we're set to open at 1980. Metals are similarly climbing, Gold +$5. Oil remains very weak, -2.3% in the $54s. A very pivotal day is likely ahead, one that will likely shape the remainder of the year, and early 2015.


sp'daily5


Summary

So, we're set to open moderately higher, but without question, there is HIGH risk of indexes turning negative at any point this morning/early afternoon.

With 1980 failing to hold, there is the obvious 1950 area, where the 200dma lurks, along with the 50% fib retrace of the move from 1820/2079.


Lets get one thing quite clear....

Even if the market snaps lower at 2pm... with the FOMC announcement... to 1950... there is EXTREME risk of reversal... with a net daily gain.

Indeed, in many ways, equity bulls should be seeking a clear spike-floor today.... clarifying a turn... with renewed upside into end year/January.
-

Notable early movers..
Airlines, DAL/UAL +1.7% or so.. as Oil continues the slide.
SDRL +2%, although there is no clear short term floor.... quite yet.
-

re: monthly bearish cross.

If the market closes in the low 1960s today... there is the probability of a bearish MACD cross on the giant monthly cycles.

sp'monthly


That would be a real problem for those in bull land. However we saw the same thing occur in mid October, and we remember how that turned out... right?
-

Have an 'entertaining Wednesday'... which will surely be the last big day trading of 2014