Thursday 13 November 2014

3pm update - a retrace is likely underway

Considering the reversal from the morning high of sp'2046, and the ongoing price action, it would seem a retrace is finally underway. VIX is highly supportive of such an outlook, +8% in the 14s. Commodities remain especially weak, with metals turning negative.


VIX'daily3


Summary

Another micro wave to the upside in equities, but still... VIX is holding moderate gains, and clearly outside of the broader down trend that began in mid October.

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Notable weakness, coal miners, BTU -5.4%.. set to lose the $10s again, but more on those after the close.

TWTR.. in trouble...


set to lose the $40s... target is $30
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3.08pm.. Anyone watching CNBC? Whats their game this afternoon? We got Kelly Evans looking like she is almost about to cry about the 'commodity bubble bursting'.

WTF? Seriously? Who is writing the script for the clowns this afternoon? Now we're meant to believe there was a commodity bubble recently? lol

I'd refer anyone to a CRB chart from 2009-2014.


3.21pm...  I'm tired... there is a lot of stuff going on, but really.. the bigger issue right now is in commodities, and that is tied to a broadly rising USD.

Oil is now $74s... set for 65/60... by the spring...

Gold $1000.. if not 900s... by summer 2015.

For those interested in miner/energy stocks... another few months.. and we might have a key floor... before the first real price surge since late 2010.
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3.25pm.. BBRY surging 12%... with Chen on clown TV... hmm


3.37pm.. TWTR loses the $40s.... target is $30.  


3.52pm.. Screaming on the trading floor.. as Halliburton is now seeking Baker Hughes...

Other drillers soaring.... RIG, SDRl, DO