Thursday 16 October 2014

10am update - dismissing the opening VIX candle

US equities open significantly lower, and there is an opening black-fail candle on the VIX. Normally, this would be suggestive a short term floor is in, but... a break <sp'1820 still looks likely. Further equity weakness looks due across today/early Friday.


sp'60min


vix'60min


Summary

*something many seem to have not noticed...

pre-market futures were sp -40pts... 1822....  and the open has been a lot less severe.

Regardless of any morning chop, I'm still seeking another break lower.... levelling out in the 1815/00 zone... which might equate to VIX 30/32.
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10.01am. Phil fed .. 20.7 ,  a touch higher than expected

10.21am.. renewed weakness.... headed towards 1820...

If price structure outlook is correct, it'll take until tomorrow morning to briefly break into the 1815/00 zone.. before a key turn.