Friday 12 September 2014

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open moderately lower, with the sp'500 close to breaking what is arguably rising support of a B wave. If correct, there is still viable downside to the low 1970s, which would equate to VIX 15s. Metals and oil are both ending the week badly.


sp'60min


VIX'60min


Summary

*the obvious price gap on the VIX continues to offer the bears some hope for a further wave lower.. but really, we're only talking about a 1% equity decline... at best.
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Interesting day ahead... especially if we can break back under 1990.

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*notable weakness: SDRL, -3.0%... which makes for one ugly weekly decline of -8%


10.04am.. Well.. .we're on the slide, 1988, with VIX 13.75...

big opportunity for the bears today...

I'll look to go long around 1972/70.... with VIX 15s..... if we get there.
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10.18am... failure in the VIX... red candle for this hour... with 1992.

..and THAT is why I can't be short this market... very frustrating.
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Where is a 'spooky' news story on the wires when I want one?


10.28am... VIX showing bear failure...


Disappointing. I suppose it could still push higher into the close, but there isn't a likely catalyst to help.