Friday 8 August 2014

10am update - opening chop

US indexes open a touch higher, but the gains look very shaky. Bulls need to break into the sp'1920s to have any hope that the current down wave is exhausted. Metals are seeing minor chop, Gold +$1.


sp'60min


sp'daily5


Summary

*hourly MACD cycle is due a wave higher.
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Again, its another open that looks prone to reversing lower at any point.

Daily 10MA @ 1937...there is a lot of overhead resistance... esp' the 1950/60s. Considering the monthly cycles - all rolling over, how are we going to break into the 1970s again?
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Notable weakness, airlines, DAL & UAL both -2.4%

re: VIX, bulls need a break below 15.50. That is possible today, but.. like yesterday, it will only take one news story to spook the market...

Eyes to the R2K, bulls need the 1130s... which would be a minor break of the down trend.. which is now SIX weeks in duration!


10.07am... Maybe its just me, but I feel like I've been a washer dryer on medium spin for the last day or so.

Right now...I am still looking for a break to the 1960s... what happens then.. well, that IS the ultimate issue now.


10.25am.. its kinda weird how narrow the trading range is right now.

Cyclically speaking, we should break higher from here... but it remains a real choppy mess overall.


10.45am.. micro bounce...bulls just need 1920 to break trend...which would start hitting a lot of short-stops. VIX turning red.