R2K, monthly'2, rainbow
VIX'weekly
Summary
The above monthly chart should terrify the equity bears. Earlier today, we had the first green candle on the monthly 'rainbow' chart for the R2K since last December. The day closed 'blue', but there is no doubt the R2K will battle higher into next week.
The battered R2K has ramped around 12% across the last eight trading weeks, and there looks to be a further 4-8% of upside into Aug/early Sept.
What about the VIX?
The VIX was again crushed into the 10s today, but settled -3.6% @ 11.15. The weekly VIX MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is at the low end, and I'd expect a minor spike in late July...15-17 would be a viable upside target.
As it is, I have little interest in attempting to trade such a minor VIX spike. Right now, I'd only consider going long VIX in mid August.. or early Sept.
Looking ahead
Wednesday will see ADP jobs, along with factory orders data. Perhaps more motivational for the market though, we have the Yellen talking at an IMF conference.
*next sig' QE is next Monday.
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Pushing out the time frame
With price action as it is - along with a truck load of new index highs, I'm assuming we are still in sub'3 - not least supported by 12 green candles on the weekly 'rainbow' chart.
sp'weekly8b
As ever, I do try to be flexible, and I'll continue to alter the outlook as best I can figure.
Goodnight from London