Wednesday 9 July 2014

2pm update - indexes set to climb

US equities are holding moderate gains ahead of the 2pm FOMC minutes. Hourly index cycles are highly suggestive of a break to the upside, which will offer the 1990s as early as this Friday. VIX remains in melt mode, and a return to the 10s is viable into this weekend.


sp'60min


Summary

*price structure on the hourly IS a bear flag, but... the bigger weekly/monthly cycles are of course bullish, and thus default view would be in favour to the bulls.
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So..lets see what the algo-bots make of the fed press release.

I would keep in mind that the equity bears had two days in their favour...and it only took the headline indexes around -1.3% below their historic highs - which was just last Friday!

From a pure chart perspective..we'll surely close today somewhere in the sp'1970/75 zone.
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Notable gains in CHK, SDRL, and momo stocks... FB & TWTR


2.03pm... FOMC... effectively announce QE to end with a $15bn cut at the Oct' FOMC.. rather than have some $5bn to cut in Dec.

In the scheme of things, its minor issue, but what is clear, from November onward.... QE3 will be...concluded.

How the market eventually copes with that.... well, I'd refer anyone to April 2010..and May'2011. Didn't work out so well in either of those cases.


2.12pm.. minor chop continues.

I see a fair bit of chatter, still seeking the 1950/40s.. but seems.. unlikely.


2.24pm.. and a snap higher.. as the bears make a run for it..and the bull chasers start to appear.

.. just another day in rainbow land.