Tbill Yields - monthly cycle (10yr view)
The last time we saw such a severe rise in yields was late Summer 2010, and the bears should remember what that period marked - an equity market low, before one of the most painful (around 30%) melt ups in history.
Just look at the MACD (green bar) cycle, we are due to go positive cycle most probably in May. That would be when the more significant 'snap higher' would occur. I suppose it is possible the cycle could fail to break back above the 0 line - just as it did in 2008, but such an outcome would be highly unusual.
What does this all mean though?
The Bond Market is really something I am not very familiar with. However, historically speaking, if Bond prices lower (with yields higher)..then Equities.... higher. Its usually that simple.
So..right now...this chart is suggesting that the main market will be higher in April, and that May offers even more intense higher moves.
This Sp' monthly chart would make sense then...
It would certainly match up with the Bond market chart, and suggest that the main indexes will make a challenge to the all time price highs sometime within 2-4 months.
If that outlook is correct, then the bears presently holding short will get washed away, long before any distant 'black swan/doom wave' even begins to unfold.
Goodnight (again)