Monday, 2 March 2015

2pm update - remaining tedious

US equities are holding moderate gains, sp +8pts @ 2112, as reflected in a VIX that remains extremely subdued in the low 13s. Metals are weak, Gold -$2. Oil is cooling from earlier strong gains, now +1.7%.


sp'60min



VIX'60min


Summary

Little to add... on what is just another day of new historic highs... not just for the Nasdaq, but the R2K and Dow
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Notable weakness: oil/gas drillers, SDRL -5.4%... set to lose the $10 threshold... again.

1pm update - minor down wave

A minor down wave from sp'2114 to 2109, with VIX to the 13.50s... but regardless of any intraday weakness, the equity bulls have achieved another key victory today with new historic highs on a trio of indexes. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2, with the miners ETF of GDX -2.1%


sp'60min


Summary

Little to add. A net daily decline looks increasingly unlikely. The opening black-fail candle in the VIX was arguably the tell.
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Key break levels remain sp'2103/00 zone.. along with VIX 14s. Until that is achieved... hopes of a retrace.. remain just that.
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Notable weakness: CHK -2.3%...


...merely continuing to slip after last weeks horror. Downside target zone remains 12/10... which looks well within range this spring/early summer.

12pm update - holding the gains

US equities remain moderately higher, with new multi-year highs for the Dow, R2K, and Nasdaq Comp', although the sp'500 remains under the recent high of 2119. Metals remain broadly weak, Gold -$2.. impacting the miners, GDX -1.6%. Oil continues to build gains, +2.8%.


sp'daily5



Summary

For those still seeking a retrace, this remains tedious. The one good thing is that there are at least some scheduled events/data points this week to help generate at least a little price action.

*the break levels remain quite clear... sp'2100... along with VIX 14s.

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Notable weakness... BABA



BABA looks highly vulnerable to losing the key floor of $82.81.... after that.. its empty air down to the IPO price of $68.

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VIX update from Mr T.


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back at 1pm
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12.23pm.. interesting reversal underway.... with the R2K having lost a full 1%....

VIX 13.50s.... 14 remains the key threshold to watch for this afternoon.

11am update - everything is awesome

The Nasdaq Composite has re-taken the giant 5K threshold... and it only took fifteen years! Clearly, everything is fine again, as the market is reflecting the underlying strength in the economy*. Metals have naturally lost their earlier gains, and are already a little lower. Oil has swung higher, now +1.9%


Nasdaq comp', monthly, 20yr


Summary

*in case you do not realise it... that opening was English sarcasm. In no way does this market reflect the reality, but then.. capital flows and fed policy are hugely over-riding natural price discovery
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So.. Nasdaq 5K... and now its just a case of when 5132 will be broken through. For me... a monthly close in the 5200s will be key.
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Equity bears need a daily close in the VIX above 14.0, to open the door to a minor equity retrace in the 2060s.

VIX'daily3


...but right now, that might have to wait for another day or two.
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Notable weakness, momo stocks... TSLA -3.2% as the $200 threshold is lost.
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time for an early lunch