Tuesday, 29 July 2014

1pm update - continued chop

US equities rebound from the little wave lower, and indeed.. it is just a day of minor waves.. ahead of an important Wednesday. Metals remain weak, Gold -$7, whilst Oil is now a significant -1.1% lower.


sp'60min


Summary

So... a wave lower... a wave higher.... but its all minor chop.
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Little else to note right now.

*I would 'prefer' a close for the R2K in the 1150s.. but considering the broader chop, that looks to be just out of range.

back at 2pm

12pm update - minor down wave

US equities have seen a rather sharp turn at the typical turn time of 11am. Yet.. in the scheme of things, this all remains minor chop within the sp'1990/50 zone. VIX remains subdued, and is barely able to claw 2% higher..still in the 12s.


sp'60min


VIX'60min


Summary

*reason for the break lower, is arguably the news that the EU is widening sanctions against its Gas master... Russia.
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Suffice to say, its all minor chop..ahead of the infinitely more important Wednesday.
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VIX update from Mr T


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time for lunch

11am update - spike floor for the R2K

US equities are building moderate gains, with the sp'500 a mere 0.3% away from breaking a new historic high. Meanwhile, yesterday's daily candle in the R2K is offering a rather attractive spike floor.... the 1170s remain first upside target.


R2K, daily


Summary

Again, I have to note, we could easily see some minor weak chop this afternoon... as Mr Market merely churns ahead of tomorrow.
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As for the R2K...

Yesterdays candle does look pretty good as a test of the 1131 low - from over a week ago. A daily close in the 1150s.. today or tomorrow.. with 1170s viable by late Friday.
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*I remain moderately long, via the R2K.
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Transports, -0.5%... lower for the fourth consecutive day... but more on that later...


11.10am... pretty sharp turn..... washing out the day-trading bulls....

sp'60min


First support around 1970.

Its all minor chop though..still within the 1990/50 zone.

11.25am... minor chop.. teasing the bears...ahead of tomorrow. At best, bears could test the low 1960s... worse.. a gap straight into new historic territory Wed' morning.

VIX set to close today red.


11.32am .. NEWS update...  EU places more sanctions against Russia.

...they seem to forget where the Nat Gas comes from... and that 'winter is coming'.

Idiot bureaucrats... but not surprising.


11.35am.. Looks like Mr Market wants to wash out as many of the bulls..ahead of tomorrow.

Barring a break <1960... none of this is to be taken seriously.

10am update - opening minor chop

US indexes opened moderately higher, slip a little, and look set for minor chop across the day. Metals are a touch weak, Gold -$2, whilst Oil is -0.9%. VIX will very likely remain below the Monday spike high of 13.64.


sp'60min


vix'60min


Summary

More than anything, I just can't expect much of today.

There is ZERO reason why the market will see price action of any consequence today. In many ways.. most should turn off their screens... and come back tomorrow morning!


10.01am.. Consumer confidence 90.9... the best since Oct'2007... when the market was peaking some 400pts lower.. in the 1570s.

...and that number should rattle the retail bears.


10.10am.. R2K making a play for the 1150s today... and yesterday's daily candle would make for a reasonable spike floor/re-test of the 1130s.

First upside remains 1170.

Any weekly close >1170.. and the sp'2100s.. etc.... would all remain on track.


10.33am.. Sp'500 a mere 7pts from breaking a new high... that is just 0.3%... reflect on that.

R2K looking good for the 1150s.

Regardless of any latter day 'weak chop'... the issue is tomorrow.

Based on everything I see... we'll see net weekly gains.