Friday, 25 July 2014

2pm update - afternoon battle

US equities remain weak, with borderline significant declines for the Dow/R2K, -0.9%. The smaller 15/60min cycles offer fair chance of a daily close in the mid sp'1980s. Metals continue to build gains, Gold +$10.


sp'15min cycle


Summary

*best daily close for the bull maniacs..looks to be sp'1984/85
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Suffice to say... it now comes down to the issue of whether we put in the first micro higher low...or see further weakness..closing at the lows of the day.

Considering the VIX.. whose spikes are STILL embarrassingly low... I'd have to side with minor upside into the close.

Clearly, net daily gains...are off the menu. However, net weekly gains..at least for the sp' are still possible
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2.24pm.. Seems I was about 2 hours early on the 'cement the floor' stage. Looks like we have it now.

AMZN -9.9%.... 2% off the lows...but still..not exactly the big reversal I was expecting.


Sp'1978.... that is FLAT on the week.... not exactly bearish....not least with a new high of 1991.

1pm update - battling for the 1980s

US equities remain moderately weak, with a possible spike floor (seen best on the Dow, hourly cycle).. at sp'1974. VIX remains relatively weak, with a max spike of just 6% to the 12.50s. Metals have bounced relative to the weak market, Gold +$6.


sp'15min


Summary

3 hrs left of the trading week...equity bulls should be content with any close in the 1980s..which seems very probable.

R2K remains especially weak (much like the Dow)

*I will hold moderately long - via the R2K (yeah...the weakest index), into next week.
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Notable weakness: AMZN -10%, but still looks to set to recover.. a little
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Update from Riley


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stay tuned


1.35pm.. chop chop... another minor wave lower... first higher low?

12pm update - still no decisive turn

US equities remain weak, with borderline significant declines of around 0.9% for the R2K and Dow. Price action though remains nothing particularly bearish, with a VIX that has only managed to spike +6% to the 12.50s.


sp'60min


Summary

*not a bad spike floor candle.. but still not net positive on the hour.
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Clearly, I've under estimated this mornings weakness, and with the Dow -160pts earlier, I'm somewhat surprised.

Regardless of this morning though, none of the bigger trends are damaged, and today is merely offering anyone to re-position.. whether to exit shorts...and/or go long.


smaller 15min cycle... is more clear...


Equity bulls need the 1980s to break the short term down trend.
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time for tea


12.11pm.. Dow is offering the first real sign of a turn.  VIX cooling, +3%... still set to close red.

11am update - time to cement a floor

US equities remain moderately weak, but there is high opportunity for the market to rebound from here.. and turn positive in the late afternoon. VIX is not particularly supportive of the equity weakness.. and has already slipped into the 11s.


sp'60min


VIX'60min


Summary

Quite a few things going on...

Suffice to say... a very real chance of green indexes at the close...and even more likely... red VIX.
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Notable strength: UAL +6.6%

AMZN still struggling, -11% in the $318s


11.03am.. so much for a floor.. new lows... with VIX jumping back.. +4%.

Dow 16927.... hmm....


11.09am.. Just consider this...  we're just 0.6% below the all time historic high..which was yesterday... with a VIX that remains sub-teens.


11.23am... still sliding....mini market wash out to end the week.  VIX +6%.. but still only in the 12s.

11.30am.. possible spike floor candle on the 15min cycle,  but still.....nothing definitive yet.

Frustrating day...I'm still calling it a tease though.


11.38am... spike floors appearing on the hourly charts....finally..we might have a floor.