Friday, 31 October 2014

1pm update - equities holding gains

US equities are holding on to most of the gains built across the morning. Only a daily close back under sp'2000 would offer any hope that a retrace (if moderate) is viable next week. Metals remain exceptionally weak, having lost the 2013 floor, Gold -$28.


sp'60min


Summary

Suffice to say... end month afternoon chop... probably.

Even if some late day selling... a monthly close in the sp'2000s will be a huge victory for the bulls.
-

October.... what a month.

12pm update - VIX remains the anomaly

Whilst equities continue to hold very significant gains, the VIX remains the anomaly... currently a touch positive in the 14s. An equity retrace is of course going to happen at some point 'soon', but for the moment... the only hint of a turn coming is via the VIX.


VIX'60min


Summary

*note the opening reversal candle in the VIX... they are usually to be taken quite seriously.
--

With the Japanese Govt. confirming they are going to ramp up equity exposure - as part of the national pension fund... we're set to close with net monthly gains of around 1-2% for most indexes.

The actual monthly candles are all screaming bullish, with huge floor spikes... suggestive of upside into early 2015.

It would seem the sp'2100s are the natural target, and both Carboni, Riley... and no doubt some others, will be laughing themselves into the weekend.

--
re: metals.

With the floor taken out... Gold is effectively in free fall. An all out crash wave is now underway, and that of course has deeply bearish implications for the miners.
-

VIX update from Mr T.(date is again wrong, but it is today's)


--
time to cook


12.22pm.. VIX creeping higher.. +2.1%... with sp' cooling to 2011

In the scheme of things...still very slight changes though.

11am update - Halloween trick... and then a treat?

US equities are holding significant gains, although there are some signs of a reversal. The VIX has already turned positive (if briefly). Metals remain in collapse mode, with Gold having lost the 2013 low of $1179, currently -$35, with Silver -3.7%. Miners GDX -4.5%.


VIX'60min


GDX, daily


Summary

Suffice to say... a wild way to end the month.

A sig' equity retrace of some degree seems likely. Right now, best downside case would be 1970/50 zone.

Any hopes of sub sp'1900s.... now off the table.

--
time to shop... back soon.
-

11.20am.. Despite the continued gains... VIX holding just a touch lower.

Regardless of the exact close though, equities are set to close the month strongly.
-

Notable weakness, Oil -1.3%

10am update - opening reversal

US equities open significantly higher, with a new historic high of Dow 17355. The sp'500 is yet to follow, although we do have the Nasdaq at new post 2009 highs. VIX is offering an opening reversal....


VIX'60min


Summary

*Chicago PMI, 66 , vs 60 expected. A very strong number, and confirming the recent Q3 GDP data.
--

Classic hollow red candle on the VIX... with some black index candles...

It is suggestive of a reversal.... but I've low confidence in almost anything right now (aside from metals/miners).

A retrace of 'some degree' is of course going to happen, but I'm concerned we'll still manage another few days of gains.. before cooling lower.

Anyway... eyes to the VIX... lets see if it can climb across the morning.


-
*I'm still looking for a retrace, but right now... at best... 50dma... in the low sp'1970s... in early November.

Considering the price action... and the bigger monthly cycles - now turning bullish, the notion of <1900... seems completely out of range for some months.

--
Meanwhile.. there is utter carnage in the precious metals.

Gold -$32, with Silver -3.6%

This is naturally leading to a continued outright crash in the mining stocks. The ETF of GDX -4.5%


GLD, weekly


The 2013 floor is taken out.... next level is 95... equating to spot Gold $1000
-


10.10am.. VIX turns positive.... confirming the opening reversal candle.

Now.. don't get me wrong... new high in the Dow... post 2009 high in the Nasdaq.. this sure as hell doesn't mean some major drop is now due...

but a retrace into mid 1900s seems viable..if not 'natural'.
-


10.42am.. VIX remains a bit twitchy... but is still suggestive a key reversal is in.

Oil remains notably weak, -1.0%