Thursday, 18 September 2014

One taper to go

The Fed didn't surprise or upset the market, with all indexes closing higher for the second consecutive day. There is now just one more QE taper to come (FOMC Oct'29)... the equity bears will soon be free of the QE fuel.


sp'monthly'8 - QE periods


sp'weekly8


Summary

*with further gains, the weekly candle has turned green, and we're back to an outright bullish market. Upper bollinger is offering the 2030s.. which seems viable as early as next week. By mid October, we could be looking at 2050 or so.
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So... QE will be a mere $15bn a month starting Oct'1st. It will be fascinating to see how the market reacts (psychologically) in the remainder of the year.

The sun is setting on QE3

Looking ahead

Many will be focused on the Alibaba IPO (ticker BABA). I'm unsure as to when it will be listed, but regardless, it'll be the worlds biggest single IPO. With investor demand and media attention at such high levels, I would not be surprised if it hit $100 on the opening day.

Weekly jobs, housing starts, and Phil' fed... will also be something to give prices a kick in early morning.

*there will be very minor QE-pomo of around $0.3bn.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes closed moderately higher, sp +2pts @ 2001. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.9% and 0.2% respectively. The Dow and Transports both broke new historic highs of 17221 and 8695 respectively. Near term outlook is for continued upside.


sp'daily5


Dow


Summary

Little to add.

Today was arguably day'2 of a new up cycle, one that looks to take us into next week, with further broad upside into early October.
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Closing update from Riley


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a little more later...

Wednesday, 17 September 2014

Volatility continues to fall

With the FOMC announcement out of the way, the VIX was knocked lower, settling -0.6% @ 12.65, although with an intraday range of 14.53/11.73. VIX looks set to remain in the 14/10 zone for the next 3-5 weeks.


VIX60min


VIX'daily3


Summary

*a notable spike at the time of the FOMC announcement - back to the opening Tuesday level.. but it lasted just seconds.
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Little to add.

VIX remains low, and with indexes set to climb, the VIX will remain subdued.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes saw morning weakness, with an FOMC announcement spike low of sp'1993. There was some distinct strength in the late afternoon (intra high 2010) but settling  sp +2pts @ 2001. The Dow and Transports broke new historic highs of 17221 and 8695 respectively.


sp'15min


sp'60min


Summary

Without question, another day for the equity bulls, and with the FOMC out of the way, the road is clear into October.

It looks like we're headed at least to 2030, if not the 2050s in October.
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I'd guess we might open a touch lower tomorrow, sp'1998/96.. before resuming higher...

I will look to go long early tomorrow, no later than 11am.
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more later.. on the VIX