Friday, 22 August 2014

2pm update - afternoon minor chop

US equities are still seeing very minor chop. A daily close in the sp'1985/95 now looks assured. Metals are a little higher, Gold +$2. Oil is weak, but above the earlier low, -0.5%.


sp'60min


Summary

*VIX melting lower, now -0.7%.. set for a weekly decline of around -11%
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Little to add, on what is turning out to be a very uneventful day.
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Airlines building gains, DAL +1.7%

1pm update - Fibonacci upside

US equities continue to see very minor chop, with the sp' holding the low 1990s. A daily close in the 2000s looks somewhat difficult. Metals are attempting a small bounce, Gold +$2. Oil remains weak.. -0.7%


sp'daily3 - fib levels


Summary

Yes..its just one of many upside outlooks, but hey... a 1.6x extrapolation of the recent down wave...offers the sp'2040s in September.. and I think that is a very valid target.

Certainly though, that will likely take at least another 2-3 weeks.
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Watching clown finance TV...

One of the doomers turns bullish... with (I believe) a target of sp'2300 by year end.


Another bear capitulates, make of that... what you will.

12pm update - minor chop

US equities see a micro wave down to sp'1984... but there remains the incessant underlying upward pressure. A daily close in the 2000s now looks unlikely, but still, the weekly cycles will be putting in a major net gain. Oil is still on the slide, -1.1%.


sp'60min


Summary

With Jackson hole out of the way for another year... bulls have a clear run now until the next major econ-data point.... monthly net jobs.. but that is two full weeks away.
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Notable strength in airlines, DAL, UAL, both +1% or so.

..time to see what the cheerleaders on clown finance TV are saying....


12.20pm... GMCR.. I'd not noticed... I guess people still like coffee huh?

Market back in melt mode.. .sp'1990.... hourly charts offering 1995 in the immediate term. 


12.32pm.. Notable strength, R2K +0.3%.... easy upside of another 1% across the next day or two.

As noted yesterday, the daily spike-floor candle, STRONGLY favours the bulls into next week.

VIX +1.3%... still set to close red.

11am update - post hole depression

With Yellen saying nothing of note, the market is seeing micro chop. New index highs are very viable this afternoon.. with a weekly close of sp'2000. Metals are again starting to slip, Gold -$2, whilst Oil is now borderline significant declines, -0.9%


sp'60min


Summary

Clearly, the market has managed to get through the FOMC minutes of Wednesday, and now Jackson Hole..without ANY significant damage.

Primary target remains the upper bollinger on the weekly cycle.. currently in the 2020s, and that will likely jump into the 2030s next week.

...indeed, at the current rate, by mid Sept' , the 2040/50s look very viable, and that would make for a far better short level.

Notable weakness, Oil/gas drillers, RIG -1.7%, SDRL, -1.3%
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time to cook!



11.04am minor weakness... but it all feels tedious.

I see a lot of counts out there, touting a sub'4 of 3... but really...difficult to fathom the micro nonsense.

What is clear...broader trend is UP...as is reflected in the VIX that generally remains sub teens.